Budgets, forecasts and expectations oh my.

image of various measuring devices with graphs and reports

Happy New Year, everyone! Hope you all wrapped up your end-of-year campaigns with a bang. Whether you're knee-deep in EOFY reporting or you’ve got a solid six months ahead before your next review, I’m wishing you all the best. May your actual revenue figures be tracking well, smashing your budget, forecasts, and all your expectations!

Let’s take a moment to think about this. Budget, forecast, and expectations: three terms that can mean the same thing, or have wildly different figures depending on who you’re chatting with. Getting the nuances of each term down pat is key for effective financial planning and communication.

• Budget typically refers to those annual revenue figures that have been given the green light by the board of directors and are closely monitored by the finance team. This figure is often seen as a "stretch target," representing the financial goals needed to hit specific organisational objectives, like delivering on key programs or ramping up outreach efforts. It’s worth noting that the official budget doesn’t usually include much input from the fundraising team, which can lead to a bit of a gap between what was expected and what actually came in.

• Forecast is a bit more fluid and dynamic. It generally gets updated quarterly and helps link the actual revenue figures to the budget in a way that keeps stakeholders happy. This allows organisations to tweak their expectations and strategies based on real-time data and trends, making sure they stay on track with their financial goals.

• Expectations are based on a realistic look at anticipated revenue, taking into account last year's performance metrics, a solid understanding of donor behaviour, and an analysis of both internal and external factors that might impact fundraising success. This term captures what the fundraising team believes it can achieve based on historical data and current market conditions.

• Actuals are exactly what they sound like: the actual revenue generated from each specific campaign. This figure is the true measure of success and serves as a benchmark against which budgets and forecasts can be evaluated.

  
  

In a perfect world, the actual revenue figures and the budget would line up nicely, showing that you and your organisation can forecast accurately and manage stakeholder expectations like pros! This alignment is often seen as a sign of successful financial management and strategic planning.

It’s also important to remember that we can interpret the same results through different lenses. The language we use when chatting about financial reports can vary quite a bit depending on who we’re talking to. But no matter the perspective, the underlying figures and results should consistently reflect the same reality.

Take, for example, a matched giving day or campaign. Revenue might come from a mix of sources, including direct mail asks, telemarketing efforts, digital fundraising initiatives, and matched giving commitments from major donors or sponsors that were agreed upon before or during the event. Plus, revenue might also include funds earmarked from previous campaigns that have been reallocated. In this case, a budget is set for the campaign—an important thing to consider is whether this budget includes the matching gifts or just the donations raised on the day of the event. If the matching gifts are included, it raises questions about how these funds are reflected in the financial reports, particularly in relation to the Major Donor or Partnerships line where they usually fit. And is what the CEO presents to the board consistent with what’s shown in the campaign’s overall financial summary?

As we think about what other important info should be included in the end-of-campaign report, it’s crucial to look beyond just revenue, costs, and return on investment (ROI). External factors can have a massive impact on the success or failure of your campaigns, and these often sit outside your control. By documenting these factors in the end-of-campaign report, you create a valuable resource for future planning and analysis.

For instance, looking back at the Christmas 2025 campaign, several external factors that could have influenced the final results might include:

• Weather conditions and unforeseen natural disasters: Events like bushfires or flooding in specific areas could have seriously affected donor engagement and campaign effectiveness.

• National events: Incidents like the Bondi shooting or major political happenings, like elections, can shift public attention and influence donor sentiment, impacting fundraising outcomes.

• International developments: Global events, such as the Trump effect or crises in places like Gaza and Sudan, can resonate with potential donors, affecting their willingness to contribute during specific campaigns.

You may of course be all over this and good luck to you but if you are new to fundraising and would like a longer conversation about what to measure and why, please contact me.